(Replying to PARENT post)

Very simple explanation: the media.

Fewer crimes happen these days yes, but that just means that the media can cover more of them that do happen, so we are more informed of crime than we ever have been in the past.

Thus, the news sources end up propagating this false idea that crime is actually on the rise because they work hard at keeping this news always at the forefront of people's minds.

๐Ÿ‘คjameskilton๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

In Atlanta, the crime statistics are down because the recently-departed police chief set up a system where his performance (and that of his underlings, all the way down) was measured based on the information that made it into the computer system. Apparently, he has made a career out of installing this system when he is appointed in a new city. As with defect tracking systems in many businesses, there is a tendency from the top down to game the system, redefine terms, and reclassify crime reports as lesser crimes or mere 'incident' reports. When your job and compensation starts to depend on statistics emitted by a computer, self-preservation leads to dishonesty. The administration in Atlanta continues to resist the creation of a citizen review board with actual teeth--one that can do more than sit in review of a few high-profile incidents and instead focus on seeking independent crime statistics to really guage the performance of the police department. I don't know about other cities, but I suspect the use of such crime stats packages is common in many jurisdictions.
๐Ÿ‘คmasterponomo๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I'm going to get downvoted for this because its fairly controversial and therefore requires backing up, but I'm at work.

multiculturalism makes people more suspicious and distrustful, regardless of the actual state of physical safety and security. sucks, but our brain is wired that way.

http://www.city-journal.org/html/eon2007-06-25jl.html

๐Ÿ‘คnazgulnarsil๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

    Edwards: Why the big secret? People are smart. They can handle it.
    Kay: A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow.
๐Ÿ‘คDannoHung๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

The trend reported in the submitted article is true. That doesn't stop me from personally knowing various victims of various crimes (which did not receive mass media coverage). The overall crime rate in the United States is still high by historical standards, having dropped back to levels of the 1960s, which were levels much higher than in the preceding decade. The trend line looks encouraging, but the actual base rate of crime still needs to be reduced some more.
๐Ÿ‘คtokenadult๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Oh, it's going down. But the United States is doing this by keeping everone who might commit a crime in jail. And that's expensive.

As the depression deepens, you'll see states start to close down detention facilities. Add to that a huge unemployment rate among the young and poor, and you're just asking for fireworks.

๐Ÿ‘คdavid927๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Once again I recommend the book "Risk: the science and politics of fear". It outs forwards lots of theories and research related to this.

On a related note I saw the other day that one percent of the us population is in jail. A huge amount of basic bits and bobs like military gear and paint (90% of domestic pain production for example) are made by prisoners (some might say as slave labour!). One in ten black men are in prison. 2 in ten have been in prison at some point. This numbers gobsnacked me (passed on for informational purposes only :-))

๐Ÿ‘คErrantX๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I know this perception is certainly true in my family. At any major family gathering it always seems to come up that everything is "so much worse" and "more dangerous than it used to be." "We used to just leave the doors unlocked and no one cared - now you can't leave anything unattended or it'll walk off!" And yet this is based on no evidence at all. If I ask if they've had anything stolen, the answer is always no; then they justify that result because they always lock things up! Sigh.
๐Ÿ‘คBigZaphod๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Another myth: the world is a dangerous place. Seriously, for most people on earth, the world has steadily become a safer place over the last 50 years. Far more danger during the "cold war."

Media hype of "orange alerts," "red alerts," etc. is just a clever way to get people to accept $1.5 trillion/year of military related spending each year (in the USA).

Sure, crime, terrorism, rogue governments like Israel and Iran, etc. are some danger to the world population, but I believe that the trend is towards a safer world.

๐Ÿ‘คmark_l_watson๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

In fairness, social data is just as tricky as any other kind of data (even if sociology is a "soft science").

First of all, lower crime rates doesn't necessarily mean that less crime is happening. It means that less crime is getting reported. There is a huge difference. For instance, you may notice that crime rates in Britain skyrocketed the same year they passed a handgun ban. As it turns out, they also switched to a more accurate crime reporting system that same year which caused the spike.

Secondly, crime rates are difficult to analyze. Saying "crime is going down" is like saying "sickness is going down". There are lots of different kinds of crime with lots of different motivations behind each, and those kinds of broad generalizations are rarely useful.

So while I do feel that the media is playing games with the American public, I also can't blame the public for not being more educated on crime rates.

๐Ÿ‘คj_baker๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

A reason I am not optimistic about crime in the USA is the continuing escalation of so-called smaller issues. With crime, "a stitch in time saves nine." Catching a small incident and having the person change behavior leads to enormous changes over time.

For an example that many consider trivial, cursing is at an all time high. Cursing's purpose in life is to convey and share anger: it is not conducive to high quality, cheerful life. There is research in psychology that shows that expressing anger leads to more, not less, of it. I actually consider quitting HackerNews entirely due to the poor quality of auto-removal of cursing in titles, text, and remarks. I am very repulsed by the ruby community for the same reason. For exaple, ruby sub, an email client has an homepage that features cursing. I just feel ick and don't even want to try it any more.

A second glaring example, imho, is vandalism. Nowadays, when I accosted a vandal in NYC, he gave me the NY Times' justifications for his crime. He said "it's art!" and "I'm black and I'm angry!" He has absorbed all the anti-capitalist myths; I am sure he never read Atlas Shrugged! The amount of property destruction is enormous. That is crime and that is way way up.

In some ways, the world is getting alot better: Ayn Rand's philosophy is being developed and publicized. Those who uphold her ideas of independence, rationality, etc, are very civilized. Thus it's a race between her ideas and those of Kant.

๐Ÿ‘คAnneTheAgile๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

In Freakonomics Steven D. Levitt argued that crime rates in a locality are linked to abortion laws in the same locality a generation earlier.

Basically, in the US, states that legalized abortions after Roe v Wade 1973 noticed a drop-off in crime starting around 1990, whereas states that did not legalize abortion did not see a drop. He claimed that changes in police methods around the same time were not so statistically significant in altering the crime rate.

๐Ÿ‘คflipper๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

The Economist had a similar story on the perception that crime is up even though it's considerably down in the UK: http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?stor...

Their two main explanations are:

1. Increasingly nationalized "local" news means that when rare but gruesome crimes happen, instead of just the city or county where they happen being outraged, now the whole country is outraged.

2. A lot of the decrease in violent crime, for the UK at least, is a decrease in violent crime by people known to the attacker, like domestic violence. Crime by strangers is not down nearly as much, and is the kind people mostly mean when they're worried about crime--- they're worried about some guy on the street mugging them, or a robber breaking into their house.

๐Ÿ‘ค_delirium๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

One possible cause of lower crime rates in the United States is the ever increasing size of the prison population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_rat...

๐Ÿ‘คchuckfouts๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Crime is publicized everywhere, drilled into peoples' heads on TV and in newspapers. In the public eye, crime continues to be seen as a rampant problem regardless of its increase or decline.
๐Ÿ‘คmcav๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

A year or two ago, an NYPD officer told us crime was up in the city and that it just wasn't getting reported. Yet another case of making your metrics.
๐Ÿ‘คflogic๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Does the rise of the Internet correlate? Our "news" is now just blogs and rumor - which is by its nature sensational.
๐Ÿ‘คJoeAltmaier๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

This is just one point of many made in Gregg Easterbrook's The Progress Paradox. It describes ways life continues to get better, but people feel worse despite it.
๐Ÿ‘คgraywh๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I think the perception that crime is worse comes from the vast numbers of people in prison, which has risen significantly, and continues to rise.
๐Ÿ‘คmattmcknight๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Ha...too many crime shows on TV. I was recently home shopping and my realtor thought she was going to be killed daily.
๐Ÿ‘คicono๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

When someone you know is murdered for no apparent reason, the actual crime rate really doesn't matter.
๐Ÿ‘คyesimahuman๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I have read [no citation available :-( ] the actual crime rate is somewhat correlated with the number of young men -- say, aged 13-30 -- in the population. This would explain an increase in the 1960s followed by a decrease in the 1990s and beyond.
๐Ÿ‘คBearOfNH๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Same in the UK
๐Ÿ‘คwendroid๐Ÿ•‘15y๐Ÿ”ผ0๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ0