(Replying to PARENT post)

> Recode’s Peter Kafka recently interviewed Buzzfeed CEO Jonah Peretti, and Peretti said something really insightful: what if Google’s ads really aren’t that good? What if Google is just taking credit for clicks on ads just because people would have been searching for that stuff anyway? I’ve been thinking about it all day: what if Google ads actually aren’t that effective and the only reason they make so much is billions of people use Google?

Key paragraph of the article. You don't have to be good at ads when you have a firehose of most of the world's population coming directly to you, telling you exactly what they want to buy/find/learn/read/do in their native language combined with their geolocation and search history. It would be hard not to serve up relevant ads in that case.

👤jborichevskiy🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

But that's precisely what makes Google "good at ads." They built the firehose. Own a destination where billions of people go everyday, find a way to measure their intent, serve my information to them. That = fantastic at ads.
👤Disruptive_Dave🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I have a feeling that we'll arrive soon at StatGate... The point where we find that many companies have been providing erroneous and/or outright false web stats, recommendations, reviews and other metrics to users in order to steer and increase profit.

Social media sites offer the ability for everyone on platforms to pay for primary placement now. This is a big conflict of interest in how posts are shown to users, and why very protected/secret algorithms are now applied to creatively show posts to some users and not others on all of these sites and services.

Once a company like Google has cornered the search market,and they also have tentacles everywhere through their collected data form other sources (e.g. google maps, gmail, google trends, Android, etc) there are few ways of backing out. They are now deeply ingrained in our society, and they'll know about anyone who is inventing an alternate path before it even happens and possibly operate in an anti-competitive manner. This is the modern realization of Skynet in a way I guess. :/

At the end of the day, how can we trust companies that manipulate us to boost profits? We simply can't, and we shouldn't really allow monopolies to get this big and embedded into critical services.

👤winternett🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Same as any other monopolistic company. Comcast isn't necessarily good at providing internet, in fact most of their customers would say they're shit at it. But most people don't have a choice.
👤blackearl🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

"Good" is hard to define, when we're talking about monopolistish scenarios, at least in this era.

Google's ads make good money because:

(1) The overture model for running a search ad market works well (Google acquired and adopted a mature system). (2) targeted ad markets get better with scale. The larger the market share, the smaller a& more targeted a segment is. (3) Ads are also search results. Over time, Google has nudged users to select ads... on high value searches.

On that last point: The value of a click varies in orders of magnitude 18c for this one $12 for that one. In the early days, this meant you could buy clicks for pennies. These days, Google limits the supply of low value ads and increases the supply of low value ad clickers.

On average, users might even see or click on fewer ads than 10 years ago. On high value search terms, advertising prominence & click-throughs are through the roof.

If Google is "playing dirty," this is where the incentive is highest... and achieves the goals which Google has strategically used to grow revenue for years now.

Playing dirty is even a weird term here. A newspaper may have a journalistic ethos whereby ad-selling squares don't get to editorialise journalism... whether they stick to it or not. By what ethos is Google not supposed to let ad selling concerns influence organic search?

👤netcan🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

> What if Google is just taking credit for clicks on ads just because people would have been searching for that stuff anyway?

This is about incrementality. Google/advertisers are well aware of this fact and have been doing lots of ablation studies to understand advertisement's effectiveness. Don't underestimate the industry; you may spend millions of dollars but not billions of dollars without good justifications.

I don't know the exact numbers (and I wouldn't be able to tell it even if I know it) and it heavily depends on the type of particular ads (e.g. brand ads will show much less incrementality), but the general consensus is that more than half of those ads can take the credit for conversions. Given that conversion tracking and attribution is not perfect, it's fair to take the money.

👤summerlight🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I frequently see people click through a Google Ad just because they didn't type in the whole domain name. Example: type "NYtimes" into address bar, click on top-most link (an ad). In these cases, the ads are entirely extractive compared to organic results.
👤reeddavid🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

The question really is then if those billions went to Bing or DDG and searched for their stuff there, would approximately the same percentage click through to the ads.
👤bryanrasmussen🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

And searching for any company name almost always returns an ad for the company in the first position.

This generates revenue for Google with virtually no added value.

👤awb🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

> what if Google ads actually aren’t that effective

Did anyone besides Google sales and marketing people actually believe that?

👤president🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Possibly a related discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21465873 (Original title: The new dot com bubble is here: it’s called online advertising)
👤johnx123-up🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

One way to read this is “Google is serving up ads for what would have been the top search result anyway.” This makes you then wonder, why pay for ads?

Because if you don’t, a competitor will and that is where the article takes the turn into talking about the new layout, occlusion, etc. It’s an interesting discussion about trust and how far Google can push before that trust is broken. However, I’m almost certain I’ve had this conversation a decade ago.

👤hysan🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

> What if Google is just taking credit for clicks on ads just because people would have been searching for that stuff anyway?

At least for my company, we run blackout experiments and measure/estimate the incrementality of the ads.

👤lawlorino🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I've both read trials of 3rd parties and run campaigns where ads are a significant boost to the site already ranking #1 in organic results.

The price of AdWords has certainly gone up, but the value hasn't declined.

👤AlchemistCamp🕑5y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I can tell you that Instgram serves up ads for things I didn't know that I wanted that I end up buying.
👤rednerrus🕑5y🔼0🗨️0