No country except Iceland or South Korea knows how many are infected, everyone else's numbers are horribly wrong.

But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Sure, different countries are counting deaths differently, making it hard to compare them to each other, but the trajectories don't lie. And if you look at growth trajectories, no country is experiencing uncontrolled exponential growth at this point: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajec...

If deaths are on a downward trajectory, it means that infections have been on a downward trajectory for weeks. And that's how we can know that it's controlled, without knowing how many have it or have had it, while being asymptomatic.

I don't agree with that. If you look at how many negative results are returned, that is a good indicator of whether you're sufficiently testing. For example, the average here in Australia is that 1.7% of tests yield positive cases. That suggests that you're probably testing enough, especially considering if people are self-selecting to be tested when they think they have symptoms. In that case, you'd expect there to be minimal additional asymptomatic cases, or you'd be catching them in the negatives.

Compare that to some states in the US, where it's a full 30% positive rate, and it's obvious the testing there isn't sufficient.

By lack of a pile of bodies.

There's like 5 or 6 data points that all point at the infection rates being reasonably close to the published estimates.

(Veneto, Gangelt, Telluride, Iceland, the Diamond Princess, the Theodore Roosevelt)

Because their hospitals are not overwhelmed beyond capacity despite having positive cases just as long as other places.

If that were true, then we'll have herd immunity in a month.

By testing 100% of a city and realising that neither the current infectio rate is high nor a large number of people with antibodies is found?

You can only know after a few weeks from death numbers.

There's a hospital that was testing all women coming in for pregnancies regardless of symptoms and they found a huge number had it.

We really need a cheap and easy test. Probably won't happen for many months. So far only endless promises and lies.