(Replying to PARENT post)
The people will stop caring, they've already stopped caring.
They're not the ones who are going to die. The realization is dawning that it's only the old that die.
Much like the starving kids in Africa, it's rapidly becoming a "Well, it's tragic, but I can't see it" problem.
Note I don't know how I personally feel about this, I think this is just the reality of what's about to happen in Western democracies.
I think the old will ultimately be chucked under a bus. We'll get lots of tragic stories about care homes and a whole load of hand wringing, but no-one will actually care all that much to bring in another lock-down.
Or, as you say, the other option is that we all throw 5-10 years of our lives away in a massive global recession for some old people who've already had the best years of their lives to live a couple of years more.
I think we've got to start hoping beyond hope for a magic cure, or that basic social distancing kinda keeps r below 1, so we don't have to look ourselves in the mirror in 5 years time and have to face the reality of what we just did.
(Replying to PARENT post)
Yes, that's the point that people in this thread is making.
It doesn't matter how serious covid-19 is, nor what the R rate is: young people perceive themselves to be at low risk, and they don't care about the risk to other people, so they're going to go out as much as they used to.
You only need to look at crowded parks and beaches or queue outside fast food places to see this.
Cummings' shenanigans haven't helped (which is I suspect the point of them).
(Replying to PARENT post)
I don't know but maybe the flu [1]? I don't think focusing just on the infection rate is useful.
> Classic psychological denial is clearly operating in force.
I think the denial is in thinking that we can beat the virus by extending the lock down for years (you say "might take two or more years"). It is likely that all we are doing is slowing down the spread, and that it will eventually infect most of the population, stopping only when we reach herd immunity. I say this is likely because this is where we are headed unless we come up with a vaccine or treatment at an unprecedented speed -- not something I would bet on.
If this is indeed where we are headed, it may be better to open up as much as possible short of overwhelming the healthcare system. Note that in many places, the healthcare systems are significantly below capacity (e.g. [2]).
[1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
[2] https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx
(Replying to PARENT post)
This is denial masquerading as cynical realism. Covid-19 cases in the UK continue to increase at 1% or 2% a day. This is much better than the double digit growth of March and early April, but it is still bad.
At 2% a day cases double every 5 weeks. Would anyone apply this reasoning to any other disease? Can you imagine anyone saying "We have AIDS under control, cases are only doubling once every 5 weeks."
You might say that on the best days, the increase has only been 1%. That's fantastic. As soon as people start going back to the pubs, the rate of spread will again accelerate to something more than 1% a day.
Classic psychological denial is clearly operating in force. A textbook case might be the man with pain in his chest and numbness in his left arm but instead of thinking it's a heart attack he keeps thinking "It's nothing, just stress." Denial is in force when things are so grim that people do not feel comfortable facing how grim they are. Some people don't see reality until they are forced to. Some people only have a lucid moment when they are in the ambulance on the way to the hospital. Some people never have a lucid moment, they simply die.
In reality, the struggle against Covid-19 will take at least another year and might take two or more years. Things are going to be very bad for a long time. But no doubt, some people won't see that clearly till they've personally known some people who've died.
The biggest worldwide increase for this illness was 2 days ago:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52748894