Due to massive population and relatively sparse testing centers available, IMV, numbers might have been off even the first time. Even this time, I think the numbers are far off.

In my home, during the first wave, all family members caught fever. All of us took an antiviral medicine. We were already isolated, in the peak of lockdown. Took all precautions and avoided contact with anyone else. The doctor who we consulted, our regular family doctor, did not recommend for testing and in any case, testing was not easily accessible.

I suspect a lot of such instances are there and the real infection numbers might be around 3 times the reported figures.

If that is true, what is remarkable is the low death rate.

Aren't we too focused on PCR-test results? The article is talking about infections but most of the times this means positive results of PCR-tests.

A PCR-test only shows if you carry RNA of the virus. Not if you are sick of that virus, not if you are contagious.

The following scenario is true and happens often: Someone gets infected by Covid-19 but the body does break down the virus and the person does not get sick and was never contagious. A month later the same person is infected by the Rhino-virus and this time it is causing a cold. The person is tested and the PCR-test shows a positive result for covid-19. Which is true from a month earlier.

Since the article says that they estimate 50% of the population came in contact with the virus in Januari, it is to be expected that there are a lot positive tests. But the article is unclear about what this means for the healthcare system. Do a lot of people get sick, or is there just a lot of focus on positive tests?

As far as I know the only way to identify covid-19 with a PCR-test is a positive test and to know in wich order of symptoms occurred.

The simplest explanation is that the seroprevalence data was badly collected and analyzed. Selection effects could have favored participants that wanted to know if they had been infected or otherwise biased the sample. Adjustment for sampling effects could have led researchers to arbitrarily increase their estimates of seroprevalence (which certainly happened in the studies in Brazil claiming they had hit herd immunity). And then antibody tests which aren't specific and cross react with other coronaviruses could have further inflated the data. And then 20% is just not enough, particularly with variants that have higher R0 values and more transmissibility.

Jammu and Kashmir is a 12 million strong popluation cluster and has a grand total of 2620 covid dedicated hospital beds and a total of 248 ICU beds.

Just for the record, yesterday the daily new cases reached 2204 with new daily deaths of 13. What can you imagine these 248 beds will do? How much can they help ?

Even if the occupancy rate of hospital beds is low, that figure can shoot up in a matter of hours and then what? Its not like its China and the government can build a hospital in 10 days so yeah, pretty fucked.

Related thread from earlier today:

India’s second wave - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26886829 - April 2021 (398 comments)

I think this surge in India is being underestimated, if anything. It’s impossible to get a place in a hospital right now for love or money in most major Indian cities, not just the states that are reporting high numbers of cases. All states are suffering but some aren’t testing or attributing deaths to Covid.

> A Financial Times analysis also points to under-reporting of deaths. Local news reports for seven districts across the states of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar show that while at least 1,833 people are known to have died of Covid-19 in recent days, based mainly on cremations, only 228 have been officially reported. In the Jamnagar district in Gujarat, 100 people died of Covid-19 but only one Covid death was reported.

All those states are run by one party. They are cooking the books so they look good compared to the other parties.

i know indians who had corona before and also who already got the first vaccine shot but got it still with strong symptoms in this current wave. everything points to mutants being more resistant and also the first wave partial immunity to already go away in big parts of the population. this is extremely worrisome. worst case: when the world just has some decent vaccine coverage later in the year we start all over again with a completely new epidemic.

Could be because of the new double mutation variant that was recently identified.

‘Double Mutant’ Covid Variant: Here’s What We Know As Israel Reports Vaccine Efficacy Against Variant First Detected In India

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2021/04/20/double-...

Another variant that is reason to be concerned is the one from Tanzania. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-26/most-muta...

Ironically situation in india for time being is worrisome and adding to our worry is this new report [https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/coronav...] Millennials are the group of people who have to leave homes for earning and by seeing the declining numbers there became bit lenient and stopped following appropriate covid-19 behavior and the new mutants which were detected added fuel to the fire and things messed up and we are seeing massive surge now. There is one thing which is clear now that we haven't had so called 'herd immunity'. In fact there have been lot of cases being reported where people are already being vaccinated [https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/shashi-tharoor-covid-positiv...] be it pfizer or Covishield or any other vaccine, but i am just hoping that it will atleast moderate the impact of the Covid virus.

> He attributes this to the presence of more-infectious variants.

I still think facemasks are selecting for more infectious strains and likely won't be effective enough in a few years unless vaccines bring us to herd immunity fast enough or the virus mutates into something less severe.