In the long run, even if they win (and that's a pretty big if), they'll have to:

1) Neutralize and disarm the "territorial defence" militias who currently have about 30K assault rifles.

2) Maintain police precence on a large and hostile territory.

3) Provide food, shelter, and medical aid to thousands, if not tens of thousands of people displaced by the war.

And they'll have to do that without oil and gas money, and without western medical supplies (which I assume will not be readily available anymore).

Resistance heavily depends on supplies (ammo, weapons etc). With virtually unlimited supplies from EU, I wouldn't be so sure about "a few weeks".

This analysis is completely wrong. Street fights benefit Ukrainian military, if anything. What we learned from the first week of war is that Ukrainian military is becoming increasingly efficient at this. The vast majority of damage dealt by Russians is done by means of air strike targeted at regional centres and metropolia (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa.) and it usually doesn't impede Ukrainian military, but simply wrecks havoc upon civilian population. All the major battles are happening on the outskirts of regional centres (Bucha, Hostomel, Mariupol, etc.) with only but marginal number of Russian military reconnaissance-diversion groups puncturing deep into the cities themselves. In the street fight, Ukrainian military has the upper hand. Ukrainian territorial defence is already running at 30K+ assault rifles and plenty of ammo, this stuff is rapidly dispensing down to smaller towns in which fights will soon take place.

The top priority (and in fact where much of the damage comes from) for Ukrainian military is to contest the airspace efficiently, which it can only achieve by means of Buk/S-300 air defence systems and the limited fleet of MiG-/Su- fighters available to them, but you have to see that it might just prove enough. Russian officers (Air force) are reluctant to fight this war, after all. They wouldn't want to lose their head in this...

If anything, Ukraine is winning this war. And it _will_ win this war, unless Russia is able to achieve air superiority over the skies pronto, which is very, very unlikely.

Nuke everything in few weeks? Yes, possible.

Take over hearts and souls of Ukrainians in the next 30 years? Maybe. Long-term resistance in Ukraine is now guaranteed.

Here's another neutral perspective from 2 senior indian generals, who have trained with the Russian Army - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNHUDDqTgdI - explaining why NATO / EU is being very careful in engaging militarily with Russia in Ukraine.

In principle, if the Ukrainian people is willing to fight till the end, they could turn the Zakarpattia province into a fortress. Protected behind the Carpathian mountains and with Nato countries on either side, and given continued arms deliveries from Nato countries, Russia may never be able to take that province

The Soviet Union managed to hang on in Afghanistan for 10 years...

How were you able to read the article with that little thing moving in the corner of your eye?

Don't think so. 60% of Russian big name military assets on the paper are stuck in Ukraine, and Belarus.

Stuck in the mud, forests, without food, fuel, and comms. Russia is already mobilising its reserves from all the way back as Vladivostok (7000km away,) which means they had a very, very, very serious, life-threatening reason to do so.

We can also conclude that Russia didn't commit its fancy new weapons to the assault, making the claim that most of them exist only on paper, and to appear on parades so more stronger.

The state or Russian military hasn't changed at large since the Second Chechnya War, except now they lack military veterans from Soviet era.

Russia is blessed by only having NATO as its only adversary, and this gives them ability to concentrate on Ukraine.

If we had a hostile to Russia regime at least in Belarus, Georgia, or Kazakhstan, they would've gone for landgrab in Russia WITHOUT HESITATION now given just how weak is the Russian conventional military. People die, and go, cities fall, and are built again, but borders stay for centuries. This would've been a once in a century opportunity for them.

Kazakhstan can return to being a nuclear state overnight if they capture Orenburg. 50% of Russian nuclear potential is a taxi ride away from Kazakhstan border.

It is fool hardy to believe that the Russian forces are "not militarily capable" of doing to Ukraine what the US did in Iraq. Reduce cities to rubble, given the logistical advantage compared to what the US did in Iraq.

I guess their objectives are pretty straight forward and since they are ethnically same as the Ukrainians do not target civilians.

What worries me is the use of civilians as human shields, even reports of Indian students being locked up by the Ukrainian forces to be used as human shields.

Let us remember that the US was ' ' close to carpet bombing Cuba during the cuban missile crisis. If you share borders with a regional superpower, stop dreaming about getting in bed with their enemies, let alone military ties.