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Also:
> Second, complementing this new energy model is a shift away from Mooreβs Law and CPUs to the proliferation of GPUs. This would support scaling Mooreβs Law through parallelism, which favors applications of machine learning and AI. As a result, the marginal cost of compute will go to zero.
And here I am looking at the sticker prices of cloud GPU computer and going: really. I won't deny there's an era of AI products and apps coming with the emergence of OpenAI, Huggingface, etc but I'm not sure the societal or economic value will outweigh the costs, or that marginal costs will go to zero.
I mean, yea, training AI models will go the way of traditional software, where marginal cost of distribution tends to zero: you build/train once (or a constant number of times), and you distribute infinitely. But the ground-level reality seems that many startups will foot higher compute bills than ever to get started.
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Unless there's a way to exact energy from nothing, energy will Always require input to produce output. That would lead to waste as well. So it can never be zero.
Solar panels, green energy ain't free, they cost minerals to create and maintain.
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The modern day examples of that is Tesla and SpaceX.
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Also, computing itself may not get much cheaper, there are concerns that Moores law is slowing down. Perhaps the cost of computing will plateau for a while.
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However, higher interest rates do lead to the next generation of great tech startups, and I recorded a video last months explaining why startups are a GREAT class of investment in this environment: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4qFuZcaNuRI
Would love feedback from those who had time to watch it
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I will leave this question open, trusting it doesn't need an answer.
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https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/06/07/the-pied-piper...
https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/chamath-palihapitiya-clov...
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The first is the marginal cost of energy going to zero.
I anticipate that this is the dumbest thing I will read from a supposedly serious person in the next decade.
Predicting a 0 marginal cost of energy is basically predicting a post-scarcity society... in the next decade... thanks to solar and wind. Oh and a wee-bit of natural gas thats somehow going to be magically piped out of the ground and transported to power plants free of charge... I guess by the same good folks who will be manufacturing and maintaining all of the solar panels and wind turbines free of charge...
How is one even supposed to seriously discuss or critically examine an article when its conclusion is that we'll build a perpetual motion machine in the next 10 years?
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1.) Near the end of the boom cycle, the smart tech investors stop playing the game as valuations get out of wack and puts money into reserves.
2.) The dumb tech investors, that joined at the later stages of the boom, play as long as they can and then the write downs start happening.
3.) The incumbent tech companies also start slowing down and letting go of people indiscriminately and the top talented engineers now become free agents who sell their highly appreciated stock options.
4.) No longer beholden to golden handcuffs, the free agents are free to execute on their side projects while living off their stock option cash-outs and severance. And many perhaps even convince former coworkers who are bored and struggling through multiple rounds of indiscriminate layoffs as well as other engineers laid off from the competition and other flailing startups to join them on this new "cool idea".
5.) The next generation is born as the business plans and prototypes around those "cool ideas" start to come together and the smart VC money sees more realistic valuations.