(Replying to PARENT post)

FWIW: Clark Howard, a finance guy I highly regard, predicts that the 4th quarter will see a softening of the economy. His reasoning is that the regional banks are being extremely tight with lending right now, and by the fourth quarter many small/medium businesses will have trouble staying afloat due to the lack of financing.
👤thefourthchime🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I have been watching for that as well, but as of yet there is no sign of it in the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index [1]. Financial conditions are continuing to slowly loosen. But things can change quickly.

[1] https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data

👤flaboonka🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

> FWIW: Clark Howard, a finance guy I highly regard, predicts that the 4th quarter will see a softening of the economy.

Highly regarded finance guys aren't podcasters or media personalities. If the guy could predict the direction of the economy, he'd be a trillionaire living his best life. Not peddling silly books and hosting podcasts. But then again, jim cramer has a following. How do explain that other than the masses are naive.

> His reasoning is that the regional banks are being extremely tight with lending right now, and by the fourth quarter many small/medium businesses will have trouble staying afloat due to the lack of financing.

He is just parroting nonsense he saw on cnbc or read in a newspaper or on social media. Just like every grifter out there. Do you really think he has inside connections to all the regional banks? To the FED?

👤goodbyesf🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

It’s already well-known that interest rate changes take a while (months? A year?) to effect the economy. It’s also well-known that higher interest rates hurt startups, “pre-revenue” companies, consumer buying power, etc. So to be bearish right now seems like a no-brainer.
👤gymbeaux🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

A lot of the small businesses near me are already collapsing, though it seems a lot of that is delayed downfall from Covid.
👤the_only_law🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

But are small businesses that important at this point?
👤ivalm🕑2y🔼0🗨️0