I see they are taking birth rates as a basis. That assumes that all the children they have will follow their parents' religion. I don't think that can be taken for granted.

When I look at my own country it seems that people are less and less following their parents' religious choices. Most Catholics in Holland of my generation are only so in name. That say they are to please the parents, but they don't do anything church related.

The same happens to more strict religions like Calvinism. My generation generally doesn't care about it, only their parents do. I guess even at a young age kids find information these days and start making their own choices. Having a religion that forbids loads of fun stuff isn't really attractive when you see other people living their life without all those rules.

My parents tried to make me Catholic but I already rejected it when I was very young. I was baptized but I refused to do any more like communion or Sunday school. It just made so little sense to me (and science made so much sense instead)

I wonder if the same will happen there.

I've heard of organizations like Footsteps[0] that help NYC Orthodox Jews leave. I sure hope there's something like that in Israel.

[0] https://footstepsorg.org/

What confuses me most about Israel’s rising political turmoil is that the faction driving for violence against Muslims (the ultra orthodox) are also exempt from the military.

Say they get everything they want and they become an apartheid, theocracy…how do they expect to survive? Who will defend them from their neighbors and from their Muslim citizens?

How would the country with arguably the greatest need for a strong military in the world expect to continue existing if their most powerful and populous group refuses to fight?

We’re seeing the problem already with reservists resigning in large numbers in protest of the PMs power grab.

Israeli here. Please forget what you know about the parents-children patters in your own country whn you think about Israel. Absolute majority of ultra-orthodox community is locked inside. In fact it consists of dozen offractions, hostile or very hostile to each other internally but standing together when questioned, accused or attacked from outside. But these fractions vary from those serving in the army or working for IT to Taliban-like sect where women wear full black burkas so only eyes are visable (800 or 900 live in Jerusalem). Majority of their children go to segregated religious schools where neither languages nor math, history (beyond Thora) or sciences are taught. Yes they stay in community and have little incentives to leave it. They reproduce ultra-orthodox behaviour and values in every generation. Normal number of children in each family 6-10. Apartments with 4-6 bedroom are normal in Israel and you can find 8 or 9-bedroom ones so no problem from this side. Now they demand sex-segregated events and beaches for all (UO beaches are strictly segregated). And Israel i s a religious state. Recently a cook at the military base was quite punished for making warm food (=cooking) for soldiers returning from real fighting with shooting, etc. Neither cook not soldiers were religious.

16 million people in a country smaller than New Jersey that is arid, has limited water, etc seems like a lot. Population growth rates often slow down when young people are crammed into apartments even if they are very religious. Curious if the models predict this