(Replying to PARENT post)

There is no scenario where climate change leads to human extinction. Worst case scenario is global population goes down by a single digit percentage. Horrible, horrible stuff, but not extinction. And most likely scenarios are not nearly that bad.

Nuclear war, if the worst nuclear winter predictions are correct, could be a lot worse but there would still be some survivors.

Unaligned ASI though, could actually make us extinct.

👤toth🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Climate change and nuclear war are not orthogonal risks.

Climate change leads to conflict. For example, the Syria drought of 2006-2010.

More climate change leads to larger conflicts, and large conflicts can lead to nuclear exchanges. Think about what happens if India and Pakistan (both nuclear powers) get into a major conflict over water again.

👤wcoenen🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

I'm pretty sure the worst case of your nuclear war scenario is actually the worst case of the climate change one.

Chunks of the world suddenly becoming unlivable and resources getting more scarce sounds like a recipe for escalation into war to me.

👤kylebyte🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

There is a scenario. The climate has been buffering global warming, and as its ability to do that fails, the rate of temperature increase accelerates along with many extreme climate events. This rapid acceleration and series of catastrophes causes a combination of mass migrations along with unprecedented crop failures. First world countries are destabilized by sky high food prices and the mass influx of migrants, leading to a big uptick in wars and revolutions. Eventually mass starvation pushes us into wars for food that quickly spiral into mutual annihilation.
👤CuriouslyC🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

> He's pretty sure that human civilization will be extinct this century.

> There is no scenario where climate change leads to human extinction.

He was talking about the human CIVILIZATION...

👤M95D🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

Climate change has compounding effects (eg: water scarcity, leading to political conflict, leading to displacement, leading to pandemics ...and that's just one vector). Real world is real real messy. COViD should have taught people that. Unfortunately, it didn't.
👤devnonymous🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

> There is no scenario where climate change leads to human extinction

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

May not be possible with modern deposits but I don’t think we are 100% sure of that, and you asked.

We could also probably burn enough carbon to send CO2 levels up where they would cause cognitive impairment to humans if we really didn’t give a damn. That would be upwards of 2000ppm. We probably have enough coal for that if we decide we don’t need Alaska. Of course that would be even more of a species level Darwin Award because we’d see that train coming for a long time.

👤api🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

it said end of civilization?

>Horrible, horrible stuff, but not extinction.

anyway climate change drop single percentage directly caused, but that kind of thing seems like it would have LOTS of side effects.

👤bryanrasmussen🕑2y🔼0🗨️0

(Replying to PARENT post)

What is ASI and how could it make humans extinct?
👤shafyy🕑2y🔼0🗨️0