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Sure sucks to be on the receiving side of something like this. The only thing this will do as a result is to slightly increase Visa and Mastercard fees.
One way VISA/MC could strike against this law is by simply cutting off all Russian cc's. That would hurt them as well but they could simply stop doing business there for a week or so. I think that Putin would very quickly recant once it becomes evident how much of the Russian economy is now dependent on such instruments.
The new Russian owned payment system is dead in the water from a non-Russian perspective, the only reason VISA and MC are so popular in Russia is because people do not trust local alternatives, not because they don't have other options.
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Of course, the "security deposit" isn't for security against these companies failing. The deposit will help with the squeeze Russia is feeling, and on the other hand this whole law would allow the Russian one-party government (which doesn't know any kind of division of power, by the way) to extort Visa and MasterCard.
I don't know if building a state-controlled credit card processor is worth it to risk being cut off from Visa and MasterCard. You would certainly expect foreign businesses to be extremely careful or suspicious toward such an entity...
(Replying to PARENT post)
I guess that Visa will now quietly back away from the sanctions and in return Russia will either extend the deadline, reduce the security deposit or allow them to participate in development of the national payment system. Probably latter.
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Now sure, international lenders would be more wary of Russia after that, but when you have the resources Russia does maybe credit is less important? Besides, if lenders are going to be used to destroy your economy why not behave proactively?
I doubt it will come to this level... at least immediately, but some people think only the west has the capability to cause financial chaos and pain. I don't think this is the case. This is why I believe we should be more cautious about hostility, financial or otherwise.
(Replying to PARENT post)
Note that the US government is no stranger to strong-arming payment processors into refusing payment to businesses it deems undesirable, not always on a legal basis. For example, donations to wikileaks. The Russian position is that Putin insists on being the one strong-arming opponents. This is not an improvement.
(I wonder if this thread is going to be "yay, someone breaking the payments cartel and going after the banks" or "boo, Putin"?)
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Personally, I don't think any country should rely on Visa or Mastercard since like the article said any countries that face U.S. sanction is basically fucked. This is equivalent of using closed source software to run your govrt.
Russia or any countries for that matter have the rights and should develop their own domestic payment transaction.
(Replying to PARENT post)
"The law also creates the basis for a new Russian national payment system that hopes to compete with the two U.S. companies."
This seems to achieve several goals at once:
1) Highlight that foreign payment processors are unreliable for Russians.
2) Either edge them out of the market or get a crap-ton of 'insurance' money. I wonder if the companies can even pay this money, according to U.S. authorities?
3) Keep the profit from becoming the de facto payment standard for Russians.
If the new payment companies are making money for Putin's government I would not bet against them, using bitcoins or anything else.