(Replying to PARENT post)
From the article you linked: "None of this implies, however, that the existence of outliers undermines modern portfolio theory or asset pricing theory."
In fact, that's exactly what it does. This is what happens when you build houses on top of sand.
(Replying to PARENT post)
He's telling people that "common knowledge" in a particularly despised sector of our economy is not only wrong, but downright idiotic.
And he's presenting it in a way such that Joe the Plumber can feel like he groks it, even if he doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of really understanding what's been happening here.
Not that Taleb's altogether wrong - Eugene Fama may be very aware of the limitations and caveats implicit in risk measurements, but it wasn't Fama that got caught pants down screwing around for billions with an asset class that he didn't understand, was it?
What academics understand about the market often has very little to do with what real traders and banks will do in it. Taleb has valid criticisms against the real players, who were freaking idiots in a lot of ways, but he's presenting them as if they're criticisms against the establishment as a whole, which is a bit unfair, but makes for a good publicity play.
Smart move, if you ask me. Nobody would know or care who the hell he is if he hadn't made such a fuss over this stuff.
(Replying to PARENT post)
As Eugene Fama points out on his website... http://www.dimensional.com/famafrench/2009/03/qa-confidence-...
"Half of my 1964 Ph.D. thesis is tests of market efficiency, and the other half is a detailed examination of the distribution of stock returns. Mandelbrot is right. The distribution is fat-tailed relative to the normal distribution. In other words, extreme returns occur much more often than would be expected if returns were normal. There was lots of interest in this issue for about ten years. Then academics lost interest. The reason is that most of what we do in terms of portfolio theory and models of risk and expected return works for Mandelbrot's stable distribution class, as well as for the normal distribution (which is in fact a member of the stable class)."