(Replying to PARENT post)

There seems to be a tendency on HN to pre-judge the outcome of trials and speak beyond the level of one's legal expertise.

Your first words are very prejudicial - "an interesting tactic". It's not a 'tactic', it's part of his defence. It might even be true. And your second paragraph is frankly fairly ridiculous - no trained lawyer talks about "a 99.9% chance of conviction".

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(Replying to PARENT post)

It is a defense tactic. They are trying to create reasonable doubt by suggesting that someone else may have been behind it - that's a tactic.

As for the 99.9% comment, I was obviously trying to convey my opinion - based on the publicly available and very damning facts - that he has no meaningful chance of acquittal on the most serious counts. It wasn't meant to be a scientifically accurate number (as anyone but perhaps the Sheldon Coopers of the world surely understood). That said, the statistics are pretty close to that: once indicted at the federal level, every defendant on average has a 97% chance of being convicted [1]. Since this case is more airtight and more resources have been expended on it than most, my exaggerated number is not off by more than a few tenths of a percent. It's scary that we live in a country with a conviction rate this high, but it is an undeniable reality.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conviction_rate - "For 2012, the US Department of Justice reported a 97% conviction rate."

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